Is Change UK a gateway to the Lib Dems?

I was attending a conference in Leeds when I discovered via Twitter that six Labour MPs had resigned the whip to sit as independents, calling themselves The Independent Group or TIGs for short. I recall that I felt deep admiration for what they had done, primarily rejecting that culture of bullying and harassment- often racially motivated- that had become a feature of the Labour since 2015. It had resonance for me as I’d left the party for the same reasons eighteen months before.

Within days three disgruntled Tory MPs had joined the TIGs and the group had swelled to eleven members. Reaction to the group’s formation was predictable, with Labour Party activists calling them traitors (and worse) which tended to underline the why the MPs had wanted to leave in the first place. What was becoming clear very early on was that the group were all vocal supporters of a ‘People’s Vote’ on any future Brexit deal and that all were sympathetic to the UK remaining a member of the EU. By April 2019 (two months after they emerged), the TIGs had rebranded and registered themselves as a political party.

While- sensibly- deciding not to trigger by elections in their seats or to run in the Spring local elections the party had an interesting decision to make about contesting the European Elections in May 2019. Given that the party had become a focus for many dissatisfied with the two major parties approach to Brexit, they decided to run candidates in the elections. This immediately turned the party from a place those who were dissatisfied with Labour and Tory party culture could sit into a party that would have to create policy that was potentially divisive internally and campaigning that would draw attacks from other parties including other pro-Remain parties. As it turned out Change UK did badly, but the new Eurosceptic Brexit Party and the established (pro Remain) Liberal Democrats did well (see below). I wondered why that might be and what part, if any, Change UK played in the changing vote shares.

I’m not an expert on polling data and there are many excellent psephologists and pollsters that will be able to provide detailed and compelling cases for why voters are shifting allegiances on the back of our current political polarisation, particularly over Brexit, but I’d make two points that struck me over the course of the campaign.

The first point is that people who voted for labour in June 2017 and were keen on remaining in the EU had gradually become aware that Labour was a party that supported the UK leaving the EU. Labour had been able to sell itself as both a leave and remain party for quite some time, but various pronouncements from its leader convinced them that it was solidly pro Brexit. Many of these Labour supporters seemed to initially focus on Change UK, but as it became clear that the new party were having problems building a party infrastructure from a standing start, they decided to cast their votes for the better-established Liberal Democrats or the Green Party. The second observation is that some pro Remain Conservative supporters who also flirted with voting Change fell back to voting for the Liberal Democrats, for much the same reasons.

The issue now for the Liberal Democrats is can they hold on to these votes? There is a suggestion that once habitual supporters of the two main parties cast their votes for someone else, the ‘spell has been broken’ and they are now more likely to become swing voters. I don’t know how much credence to accord this, but it seems plausible. So, the Liberal Democrats may be able to build on the votes they have taken from the other parties. Another issue that the Liberal Democrats will face is how do they build a solid platform of policies that go beyond merely an anti-Brexit stance. It’s possible, somewhat counter-intuitively, that not leaving the EU may harm Liberal Democrat votes as much as leaving would harm Brexit Party votes.

The immediate future looks good for the Liberal Democrats, but there are issues to be attended to in the medium to long term.